Six gold medals are likely in Beijing

IT'S an Olympic year and as we get closer to the start of the Beijing Games, local track and field enthusiasts will begin to make predictions on Jamaica's likely medal haul in the August 8-24 sports extravaganza.

All but one of Jamaica's medals at the Games have come in one sport. The lone medal outside of athletics came in cycling in 1980. In Beijing, Jamaica will be represented in four sports - cycling, equestrian, swimming and athletics but only in the latter sport does the island have any realistic chance of gaining medals.

Jamaica will field the best in the world in several track and field events and could capture their highest ever gold medal haul at a single Games.

Hot favourite

On the men's side, Usain Bolt is the world leader in both the 100 metres and 200 metres and will go into the Games the hot favourite for the double if he competes in both events.

If former world 100m record holder Asafa Powell recovers in time from his latest injury, Jamaica will also be warm favourites for gold in the sprint relay. Danny McFarlane, at age 36, is still running very well in the 400m hurdles and while it is very unlikely that he will repeat the silver he won in Athens four years ago, he could, if he reaches the final, grab the bronze medal from some of his younger rivals.

Get things right

With only Ricardo Chambers having a time below 45 seconds this season, Jamaica will be hard-pressed to get the usual bronze or silver medal in the 4x400m. With no one looking likely to go past the semi-finals of the individual events, however, it gives the relay squad a lot of time to get things right. The Americans will take the gold but the other two medals could go to two from a number of teams.

On the women's side, Jamaica can win medals in a wider spread of events. The recent National Championships showed that the island's women were strong in the 100m, 200m, 400m, 100m hurdles and 400m hurdles. They will also be medal contenders in the sprint relay and 4x400m.

Last year's World Champion Veronica Campbell-Brown is out of the 100m, but National Champion Kerron Stewart is one of the the favourites for gold in the event. Her 10.80s at the National Championships has only been bettered by American Torri Edwards with 10.78. New sprint star Shelly-Ann Frazer, who clocked a personal-best 10.85 at the Championships, is also good enough to pocket a medal.

American Allyson Felix should not be beaten in the 200m but Jamaicans are not far behind. Campbell-Brown, the defending champion and world leader with 21.94 and Stewart (21.99), should not be beaten for the other medals.

New find Rosemarie Whyte, Shericka Williams and Novlene Williams-Mills are also capable of getting among the medals in the 400m behind gold medal favourite, American Sanya Richards.

Walker looking good

With world leader Lashinda Demus out after she failed to finish in the top three at the American trials, Jamaica's Melaine Walker is looking good for the top medal in the 400m hurdles. Walker defeated top American Tiffany Williams at the weekend and will be a serious contender if she maintains her form. Jamaica's number two Nickeisha Wilson, who made the World Championships final last year, is also a medal contender.

In the 100m hurdles, the experienced pair of Brigitte Foster-Hylton and Delloreen Ennis-London are also expected to be among the medals.

Jamaica will parade four of the six fastest women in the world this year and with good baton changing should retain the sprint relay gold they won in Athens four years ago, while the 4x400m squad is good enough to repeat the silver they won at last year's World Championships.

Based on the above and barring mishap, Jamaica appears in line for a rich haul of six gold medals in Beijing.

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